XRP Faces 300% Outflow Surge Amid 18% Drop Risk

XRP shows a head-and-shoulders pattern on the 12-hour chart with a neckline near $1.18. A confirmed close below that level would project a measured move of about 18%, targeting $1.01 and $0.96.

The pattern developed with a left shoulder in early March, a head in mid-March and a right shoulder completing in mid-May. XRP fell to $1.30 on May 23 and traded around $1.35 on May 25.

On-chain exchange flows moved notably during the same period. Glassnode’s Exchange Net Position Change recorded -7,144,942 XRP on May 15 and -29,372,431 XRP on May 24, an increase in net outflows of more than 300% over nine days. Net outflows indicate more coins leaving exchange custody, which reduces the amount immediately available for sale on exchanges.

Derivatives metrics showed declining leverage and interest. Reported open interest fell from about $1.0 billion on May 15 to $914.19 million by May 24. Funding rates on long positions dropped from 0.008% to 0.003% over the same span, a roughly 62% decline. Lower long funding and reduced open interest mean fewer leveraged long positions that could generate cascading liquidations.

Traders cited intraday trigger levels. A move below $1.34 followed by $1.28 would raise the odds of further weakness. Sustained trading below $1.21 and then $1.18 would indicate deeper vulnerability. Reclaiming and closing above $1.55 would lessen the pattern’s bearish weight, and a 12-hour close above $1.60 would invalidate the head-and-shoulders setup.

The exchange outflows were steady rather than sporadic across the nine-day span. Future exchange flows and changes in leverage will affect available supply and the pool of positions that could amplify price moves. Market participants are monitoring price action around $1.18 and $1.60 for signs of the chart pattern resolving either way.