VanEck predicts Bitcoin could reach $1 million in five years

Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research, projected in recent remarks that Bitcoin could trade at $1 million per coin within roughly five years. VanEck describes that outcome as its base-case scenario.

Sigel described the path as cyclical and warned of significant volatility, saying, ‘We think this asset is going to reach $1 million over the next several years, but it’s a very cyclical asset. There are no bailouts in bitcoin, so it’s going to be cycles along the way.’

He compared Bitcoin’s adoption to the video game industry, noting adoption has broadened beyond early, younger users. ‘People don’t quit; they also don’t quit bitcoin,’ he added.

Sigel pointed to institutional developments, including the first central bank purchase of bitcoin for official reserves, as part of a longer trend in adoption.

On market behavior, VanEck notes Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq is at a five-year high and attributes the recent rally largely to macroeconomic forces. The firm reports limited leverage in the derivatives market and views much recent price movement as short covering, which leaves overall positioning relatively bearish.

The projection places VanEck alongside other industry forecasts that put Bitcoin in seven figures, including projections from Bitwise’s chief investment officer and the CEO of Jan3, each derived from different analytical approaches.

For price context, Bitcoin traded around $81,042 on May 7, down about 0.3% from the previous day. Reaching $1 million would require more than a 12-fold increase from that level. Regaining the October 2025 record of just over $126,000 would represent only a small portion of the move required.