U.S. Traders Make Up About $21B of Offshore Prediction Market Volume
Study: U.S. traders account for about 25% of volume on five offshore prediction platforms — roughly $21.2 billion annually.
A study by Crane & Zeng Consulting, commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets, estimates U.S. traders account for about one quarter of activity on five offshore prediction platforms — Polymarket, Opinion, Predict, Limitless and Myriad. The firm’s central estimate ties roughly $21.2 billion a year in trades to American users.
The report gives a conservative range for U.S. participation on offshore venues of $10.6 billion to $34 billion annually. That range corresponds to about 7%–21% of combined global regulated and offshore prediction-market volume, according to the authors.
Researchers estimate roughly 30% of Polymarket’s $55.6 billion in annual volume is linked to U.S. traders, a figure they place between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion. Polymarket’s international site blocks U.S. internet addresses, but the report notes Americans can reach it using virtual private networks, which violates the platform’s terms and complicates enforcement.
The study comes as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission works on a regulatory framework for prediction markets and as members of Congress consider limits on participation. Polymarket US began operating under CFTC oversight in December 2025 as a designated contract market and derivatives clearing organization, removed its U.S. waitlist in May 2026 and now serves customers in more than 40 states. The company faces a preliminary injunction from a Nevada court, and Minnesota has passed a ban that takes effect in August 2026.
Trading on licensed U.S. platforms rose 866% from 2024 to 2025, while tracked offshore venue volume grew 179% over the same period, the report finds. Kalshi, a CFTC-licensed exchange, reported monthly volume of about $14.81 billion by April 2026, up roughly 22-fold. Polymarket’s monthly volume rose to about $9.01 billion by April 2026, a jump of roughly sevenfold.
The report cites industry forecasts projecting large growth in the sector. One projection from April 2026 put total prediction-market volume near $1 trillion by 2030 and projected industry revenue rising from about $400 million in 2025 to $10.8 billion in 2030.
The authors note a regulatory trade-off: tighter rules on U.S. regulated venues could shift more trading to offshore platforms beyond U.S. oversight. The report states: “At least 7% of global prediction market trading volume (regulated and offshore) during the TTM (approximately $10.6 billion of an estimated $159 billion combined total) is attributable to US users transacting on offshore venues. This estimate is intended to be conservative, with a plausible estimated range of 7–21% ($10.6B–$34B) of global (regulated and offshore) prediction market activity attributed to US users on offshore platforms.”
The researchers say their findings are intended to inform policymakers considering how to structure oversight and participation limits for prediction markets.
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