Trump Ties Iran Deal to Expanded Abraham Accords, Markets Quiet

President Trump on Monday tied any final Iran settlement to a broader Middle East diplomatic package, saying Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey and Jordan should join an expanded Abraham Accords. U.S. markets were closed for Memorial Day and trading activity was muted.

Prediction markets priced a 39% chance that the United States will announce a new Iran agreement by May 31 and an 11% chance that Iran will hand over its highly enriched uranium. Those odds reflect skepticism about a quick deal and sharper doubt about the disposal of Iran’s most sensitive nuclear material.

U.S. officials and negotiators reported that Iran’s supreme leader approved a broad template for a draft agreement. According to U.S. sources, Tehran agreed in principle to dispose of highly enriched uranium in exchange for the lifting of a U.S. blockade. Two senior advisers to the president, including Jared Kushner and real estate executive Steve Witkoff, have taken part in the discussions.

A senior U.S. official described sanctions relief as staged and conditional, using the phrase “no dust, no dollars” to stress that payments or easing would follow verified Iranian actions rather than a single lump-sum settlement. U.S. negotiators also want guaranteed free passage through the Strait of Hormuz without tolls, coordinated with Gulf partners.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the president coordinated on a memorandum of understanding covering the strait and the broader Iran framework, and Netanyahu reiterated that any agreement must remove enriched Iranian material from Iranian territory. A senior Iranian source denied that Tehran had agreed to hand over its uranium stockpile, and Saudi Arabia has not publicly signaled a willingness to formalize ties with Israel.

On his social platform, the president wrote it “should be mandatory” for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain to sign the Abraham Accords simultaneously, with the United Arab Emirates already a member. He suggested Iran could join later if it met specified conditions.

Cryptocurrency markets remained active through the holiday without large moves, leaving Bitcoin and oil price dynamics largely unchanged. Analysts say investors are weighing whether the diplomatic effort represents a lasting geopolitical realignment or another short negotiation cycle; one analyst, Kyle Doops, noted markets are watching for verifiable steps and the sequencing of sanctions relief.

Officials have not disclosed a timetable or a dollar figure for sanctions relief. Israeli and Gulf positions differ on the timing and verification of removing enriched material from Iran. With U.S. economic data due later in the week — including consumer confidence, core inflation and GDP revisions — investors may shift attention away from the talks as more concrete confirmations from regional actors remain outstanding.