Traders Shift to Gold as US-Iran Deal Weakens Oil

Traders increased long positions in gold and reduced exposure to silver in the week ending June 9, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitments of Traders report and concurrent options data. The changes came after reports of a tentative U.S.-Iran deal coincided with a decline in oil prices.

In gold futures, non-commercial long positions rose by 1,888 contracts. Commercial long positions increased by 5,135 contracts. Total open interest in gold futures climbed by 6,657 contracts for the reporting week.

Silver futures showed smaller movements. Non-commercial long positions in silver fell by 1,446 contracts. Total long positions in silver increased by 1,055 contracts, while silver open interest rose by 631 contracts.

The increase in gold open interest was roughly ten times larger than the rise in silver open interest over the same period.

Across the past 30 days, the correlation between gold and crude oil was about -0.34, meaning the two assets tended to move in opposite directions over that window. Gold and silver had a 0.82 correlation, while silver and oil showed a correlation near -0.15.

The gold-silver ratio stood near 61.7, above recent lows.

Options activity on major exchange-traded funds tracked similar patterns. On the main gold ETF, the put-call volume ratio rose from 0.73 to 0.78 since June 2, and the open-interest put-call ratio moved from 0.56 to 0.58. On the primary silver ETF, the put-call volume ratio fell from 0.44 to 0.40 and the open-interest put-call ratio remained around 0.53.

Futures and options flows during the reporting period showed larger net activity and higher open interest in gold than in silver, according to the CFTC report and ETF options data. The data cover positions reported in U.S. futures markets and options trading through the dates noted above.