Standard Chartered: $59K Bitcoin bottom; Galaxy: $40K–$46K

Standard Chartered and Galaxy Research released competing views on Bitcoin’s cycle low this week. Standard Chartered calls the low complete at $59,000, while Galaxy’s analysis points to a possible floor between $40,000 and $46,000 arriving by late 2026.

Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital asset research, wrote in a client note that the June slide to $59,000 represents this cycle’s low and that the market has passed the worst of the sell-off. Kendrick cited two near-term factors that eased pressure on risk assets: President Trump’s cancellation of planned strikes on Iran and the timing of a large initial public offering. He also referenced a streak of outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs that totaled about $4.3 billion over 13 sessions, saying some ETF holders appeared to sell shares to free cash for the Nasdaq debut tied to the IPO. Kendrick concluded the note with the line, “Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring.”

Galaxy Research, led by Alex Thorn, published a data-driven study that anchors its view to the four-year halving cycle. The report finds only four of 13 traditional bottom signals have triggered and notes the current drawdown of about 51% from October’s $126,000 peak is smaller than the 77%–85% drops that ended prior cycles. The firm highlighted timing: past bottoms tended to arrive roughly 12–13 months after cycle peaks, while this cycle is about eight months past the October high.

Galaxy’s base-case places a floor between $40,000 and $46,000, with that low most likely arriving by late 2026. The report adds the floor could fall further if a widespread panic prompts rapid selling. The study reads, “A calmer top has raised the floor, but it has not removed it.”

Both firms agree the four-year cycle remains a useful framework and that recent bear markets have been shallower than earlier ones. Galaxy’s analysis shows a trend toward smaller peak-to-trough declines, and it reports the aggregate cost basis of current holders is about 43.7% of the prior peak, compared with roughly one-third in earlier cycles. The report attributes the higher cost basis to stronger institutional demand, including ETFs and corporate treasury allocations.

Market activity has mirrored the debate. Bitcoin traded in the low $60,000s during the recent rebound, above the $59,000 dip flagged by Standard Chartered. Kendrick had earlier suggested a capitulation near $50,000 would present a buying opportunity toward a $100,000 year-end target.

Standard Chartered identified several market developments that would support its view: renewed ETF inflows, lower oil prices and Treasury yields, and confirmation that a recent manager sale of 32 BTC was an isolated event rather than the start of wider liquidations.

ETF flows, oil prices, Treasury yields and geopolitical developments are among the factors market participants say will influence which forecast aligns with future price action.