Spot ETF Inflows Push XRP Toward 12% Breakout
About $65 million in spot ETF inflows over two weeks coincide with a cup-and-handle pattern on XRP and a neckline near $1.50–$1.51.
Spot ETF inflows of roughly $65 million over two weeks have coincided with XRP forming a cup-and-handle pattern. The neckline is clustered near $1.50–$1.51 and a confirmed breakout above that level projects about 12% upside to roughly $1.68.
The cup formed between April 17 and May 10. A falling-channel handle began on May 10. The cup measures about 12% from rim to bottom. Trading volume across the handle has cooled while buying has appeared on dips. XRP has risen about 1.7% over the past seven days.
Weekly spot ETF flow data show a small outflow of $35,210 in the first week of May, followed by $34.21 million of net inflows for the week ending May 8 and $31.11 million for the week through May 13. Those two consecutive weekly inflows above $30 million occurred while the price consolidated inside the handle.
The Smart Money Index, a metric that tracks professional trader positioning relative to retail flow, moved from about 2.40 to 2.42 versus its signal line. The index rose before an April 19 price increase for XRP.
Exchange net position change data show inflows to exchanges fell from 38,088,506 XRP on May 12 to 14,067,566 XRP on May 13, a 63% single-day drop. Lower inflows to exchanges reduce potential selling availability on exchanges.
XRP traded near $1.42 at the time of the data. A daily close above $1.44 would indicate a breakout of the falling-channel handle. A convincing daily close above $1.50–$1.51 would confirm the cup breakout and open a path toward the roughly $1.68 target, which aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near $1.67. Intermediate resistance levels include about $1.44, $1.47 and $1.49.
Previous cup-and-handle attempts on XRP have not produced sustained rallies. A daily close below $1.41 would weaken the current structure and expose $1.38 as the next support. A daily close below $1.34 would invalidate the pattern. The next weekly ETF flow report and upcoming daily closes will indicate whether the technical setup converts into a confirmed breakout.
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