SpaceX IPO Priced at $135, Valued Near $1.8 Trillion

SpaceX set its initial public offering price at $135 per share on June 11, 2026, implying a market valuation of roughly $1.8 trillion based on about 13 billion shares outstanding. The offering drew heavy demand and a wide range of market expectations.

The company’s prospectus reported approximately $18.7 billion in revenue in the most recent year and no net profit. At the IPO valuation, the price-to-sales ratio is about 96. Some valuation models estimate intrinsic value near $780 billion, reflecting a wide spread of valuation outcomes.

Prediction markets and traders show a range of first-day scenarios. A small portion of bets imply a greater-than-125% first-day gain that would push market capitalization above $4 trillion; that outcome carries an implied probability near 1%. Markets assign roughly a 38% probability to a closing market cap above $2.4 trillion, and there is a smaller probability of a closing value below $1 trillion, which would correspond to a share price near $76, about 40% below the offering.

Index inclusion rules may affect early trading dynamics. Nasdaq’s fast-entry rules could allow SpaceX to join the Nasdaq-100 in about 15 trading days. Russell index reconstitution could occur within roughly five trading sessions, and S&P managers may grant exceptions. Passive funds tracking those indexes would need to purchase shares to match index weights, creating mechanical demand in the short term.

The offering was reported to be about twice oversubscribed, which may limit direct retail allocations through traditional brokers. Secondary routes such as tokenized or synthetic shares have appeared as alternatives; those instruments have different liquidity profiles and regulatory considerations.

Some quantitative forecasting models project an initial consolidation below the IPO price in the months after listing, followed by a later advance and stabilization in the low $200s by early 2027. One model projects average monthly prices rising to about $208 by March 2027.

Market participants point to SpaceX’s mix of commercial space services and exposure to artificial intelligence-related demand when explaining optimistic growth assumptions. Current revenue and profit figures are used in more conservative valuation estimates. Large prior IPOs have at times produced early rallies followed by substantial drawdowns within months of listing.