Solana’s rising channel risks repeating 50% collapse

Solana (SOL) has traded inside an ascending parallel channel since Feb. 6 and currently sits roughly 3% above the channel’s lower trendline near $81.24. On-chain metrics show a recent drop in hodler accumulation, and technical levels identify specific downside and upside checkpoints.

Price action put in higher lows along the channel’s lower boundary with a single test of the upper trendline since the channel formed in early February. The channel’s base is anchored at the low of a more-than-50% decline that occurred from mid-January to early February.

Trading volume data indicates buying volume has declined steadily since early February even as price rose inside the channel. SOL has been drifting back toward the lower trendline on that thinner volume base.

Glassnode’s Hodler Net Position Change, which measures daily changes in supply held by wallets that have held SOL for more than 155 days, remained positive from early March through late May. The metric peaked near 3.2 million SOL on May 25 and fell to about 2.78 million SOL on May 26, a 13% decline in 24 hours. Hodlers were net buyers over the early-May rally, and the rate of accumulation slowed in the latest session.

Short-term holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which tracks coins held under 155 days, read -0.157 at the most recent update. That value is above the deep capitulation readings seen in February and near a six-month high of -0.03 recorded on May 11. NUPL indicates whether short-term holders are sitting on net profits or losses; current readings show smaller unrealized losses compared with the February low.

SOL traded at $83.78, about 3% above the channel’s lower trendline near $81.24, which aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the April–May advance. A daily close below $81.24 would confirm a breakdown of the channel. The first downside target after such a breakdown is $76.61 (1.0 Fibonacci), followed by $63.21 (1.618). A further extension to $41.53 (2.618) would mirror the size of the January decline and is roughly 50% below the current price.

On the upside, reclaiming $84.89 (0.618 Fibonacci) would interrupt immediate bearish momentum, while a daily close above $87.45 (0.5 Fibonacci) has capped upside attempts since May 20. Above $87.45 the next targets are $93.17 (0.236 Fibonacci) and $98.29; a daily close above $98.29 would represent a clear break above the recent caps at those levels.

The analysis links price position relative to the channel and Fibonacci levels with on-chain metrics: the Hodler Net Position Change and short-term holder NUPL provide the on-chain measures cited alongside the chart levels. A daily close below $81.24 is the stated threshold separating a routine retreat inside the channel from a confirmed channel breakdown.