Raoul Pal: Bitcoin’s 318% Gain Counters ‘Crypto is Dead’

Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision and former head of European hedge-fund sales at Goldman Sachs, compared Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100 returns using the November 2022 liquidity low as the starting point. He noted Bitcoin fell to about $15,700 after the FTX collapse and has since risen to near $65,800, an increase he places at roughly 318%. Over the same span, the Nasdaq 100 has climbed to about 30,660, or roughly 187%.

Pal posted the comparison on X on June 3, 2026, and attributed the results to liquidity cycles. He wrote that the narrative claiming capital permanently moved from crypto into technology stocks is appealing but does not match the returns measured from the 2022 trough.

U.S. markets opened lower on Wednesday, June 3, as traders reacted to stronger-than-expected ADP private payrolls data showing 122,000 jobs added in May and to stalled Iran–U.S. talks. Analysts reported more than $500 billion was erased from U.S. equities within about 20 minutes of the open. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 edged down while the Dow lost roughly 0.5%.

Bitcoin traded near $65,800 on Wednesday, down about 2.7% over 24 hours and well below its record high near $126,080. The token’s market value remains above $1.3 trillion.

Pal describes the recent weakness in Bitcoin as a mid-cycle correction within a broader liquidity-driven rally that began in 2022. He has used liquidity models since launching Global Macro Investor in 2005 and says those models indicate Bitcoin is trading below levels supported by current funding conditions. On X he added, “of course but its still surprising even to me after a 50% sell of in BTC and 80% in Others.”

Critics contend that using the November 2022 low as the base amplifies Bitcoin’s relative gains. Other analysts point to the rise of AI and chip stocks as a factor that has altered capital flows into equities.

Market data show a stronger correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq over the past year. That link can increase losses in Bitcoin when U.S. equities fall. Traders and investors will be watching whether that correlation holds as policymakers, economic reports and geopolitical developments influence markets.