Polymarket: 67% Odds Tech Layoffs Rise in 2026

Polymarket traders have priced a 67% probability that U.S. tech sector layoffs in 2026 will surpass totals from 2025, following reports of low employee morale at Meta ahead of planned job cuts.

The prediction market launched a contract titled “Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026?” and currently prices the “Up” outcome at 67%. The contract closes on Feb. 28, 2027, and will resolve using Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data for the U.S. “Information” sector through June 2027.

Traders pointing to higher odds cited a string of announced 2026 reductions at companies including LinkedIn, Cisco, Cloudflare, Coinbase and Oracle, and they highlighted internal unrest at Meta as an additional factor.

Meta has told employees it will cut roughly 8,000 roles on May 20, about 10% of its global workforce, and impose a hiring freeze on about 6,000 open positions. The company’s chief people officer described the reductions as a way to run the business more efficiently while shifting heavier spending toward AI infrastructure.

Meta reported first-quarter revenue of $56.3 billion, a 33% increase year-over-year. Shares fell about 10% after the company raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to a range of $125 billion to $145 billion.

Employees have posted on internal forums that morale is low. An Instagram staffer wrote, “Everyone is unhappy; the only people who are not unhappy are, literally, executives.” Staff circulated flyers protesting a tool that logs keystrokes, clicks and screen activity for AI training, and discussions about performance reviews tied to AI output have spread across teams.

Minutes before launching the layoffs contract, Polymarket posted a short message reading “Meta employee morale is reportedly at ‘historic lows.'” The market linked the company-specific developments to a wider pattern of restructuring and worker pushback that traders say could raise the likelihood of net higher job cuts across the information sector next year.

The contract gives traders several months to adjust positions. Polymarket’s price reflects trader sentiment at the moment and may change as companies announce new layoffs, hiring pauses or policy changes.