Nvidia hits record high as China demand reignites AI chip rally

Last week Nvidia shares climbed to a record above $236, lifting the company’s market value toward $5.7 trillion. The stock gained 3.7% in a single session and posted several consecutive advances ahead of the company’s quarterly earnings report.

Major Chinese technology firms, including Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance and JD.com, are preparing to purchase Nvidia H200 AI processors once export controls and Chinese approvals allow shipments. Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang traveled to China with a U.S. delegation in recent days, a trip tied to ongoing discussions about technology exports and approvals.

U.S. export restrictions on certain advanced chips remain in effect, and some approvals from Chinese authorities have been slow. Those constraints create execution risk for any large shipments until regulatory permission is secured.

Global demand for high-performance GPUs used in model training, inference and data-center deployments remains strong. The semiconductor sector has risen alongside Nvidia, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recently reached record levels.

Year-to-date Nvidia shares are up more than 25%, and the stock has gained over 70% in the past 12 months, outpacing major market indices.

From a technical perspective, Nvidia is trading above its 20-day moving average near $210, its 50-day near $193 and its 200-day near $186. Immediate support is in the $210–$215 band, which includes an Ichimoku Kijun level around $210.63. Momentum indicators show near-term strength but some signs of exhaustion: the relative strength index is in the mid-60s, the commodity channel index is above 130, and the Stochastic RSI has produced a short-term sell signal. Trend-following indicators such as the MACD and ADX remain positive.

Traders expect Nvidia to trade roughly between $215 and $235 in the next few sessions. A confirmed move above $235 would open the path to higher levels, while a sustained fall below $210–$215 would raise the probability of a deeper pullback.

Model-based projections point to consolidation through mid-2026 with possible recovery in the second half of the year. Short-term forecasts place the stock in the low $200s in May 2026, dip toward the high $190s in June–July, and show a rebound into the $220 area by September–October. Later projections show higher targets into the $260s by November and the upper $200s by December, contingent on renewed AI-driven demand and clearer regulatory outcomes.

Investors will monitor Nvidia’s upcoming earnings and any guidance about how export restrictions and Chinese orders are affecting sales. Geopolitical risk and the stock’s elevated valuation are factors market participants list as potential constraints on near-term upside.