Musk projects $1T SpaceX revenue by 2030; Wall Street skeptical

On June 14, 2026, Elon Musk posted on X that SpaceX could reach approximately $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030 and that he would be surprised if revenue fell below $1 trillion in 2031. The post came days after SpaceX completed its initial public offering, which pushed the company’s valuation past $2 trillion and left Musk with about 82.4% of voting power.

The banks that led the IPO project much smaller revenue totals. Morgan Stanley models about $330 billion for 2030 and $160 billion as early as 2028. Goldman Sachs also forecasts figures well below $1 trillion and bases most upside on growth in AI infrastructure rather than launch or satellite services.

SpaceX reported $18.7 billion in revenue for 2025 in its IPO filing, up from $14 billion in 2024 and near $10 billion in 2023. The company’s consumer and enterprise internet unit, Starlink, generated $11.4 billion in 2025 and had about 10.3 million subscribers by March 2026, up from 8.9 million a year earlier. Corporate filings show large capital expenditures across rockets, satellites and computing infrastructure, and the company posted a steep quarterly loss in early 2026.

Reaching $1 trillion by 2030 would require roughly a 53-fold increase in revenue from 2025 levels. Morgan Stanley’s 2030 model assigns about $190 billion of its projection to SpaceX’s AI infrastructure business, which reported $3.2 billion in revenue and a $6.4 billion loss in 2025. Goldman Sachs’ estimates also lean on AI contributions but remain well under Musk’s projection.

Musk’s post on X read: “I think SpaceX might be able to reach approximately $1T revenue in 2030.” He added he would be “surprised if revenue is not greater than $1T in 2031.” The company’s future results will depend on execution across launch services, satellite operations and computing capacity tied to AI demand, areas cited in the underwriters’ models.