IMF: Iran Disruptions Keep Brent Near $95 as Calls Rise

The International Monetary Fund reported that Iran-related disruptions have pushed global oil prices about 3% above the level used in its April global growth baseline and have kept Brent crude near $95 a barrel.

The IMF attributed the price gap to conflict involving Iran and said reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly one-fifth of global oil flows, will shape the next price path. The fund estimated Iran-related disruptions have removed about 14 million barrels a day of production and forecast global oil reserves would fall to about 7.5 billion barrels in July, down from roughly 8 billion before the conflict.

Brent crude posted a second straight weekly gain after a roughly 13% drop over the month. Options activity shows more investors buying upside exposure: the put-call ratio for the United States Brent Oil Fund fell to 0.06 on volume and 0.11 on open interest as of June 4, down from 0.12 and 0.15 on May 26.

Futures positioning among speculative funds was net short in the week to May 26. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitments of Traders report showed non-commercial traders holding about 58,110 long contracts against 90,924 shorts. During that week those traders cut about 1,703 longs and added approximately 6,145 shorts. Commercial traders added about 4,319 longs and trimmed roughly 907 shorts over the same period.

Perpetual-futures funding for the Brent–USDC pair was near neutral on a 30-day view, at about -0.0013 percent, indicating no clear directional bias among perpetual-futures traders after an earlier negative swing eased.

Survey data show rising input costs in the services sector. The ISM Services Prices index rose to 71.3 in May from 70.7 in April, its highest level since August 2022. The index has increased 8.3 points since February, the largest three-month rise since 2021, and respondents identified diesel, gasoline and oil among items driving higher costs.

Venezuela’s crude exports rose about 61% year on year to roughly 1.25 million barrels a day in May, the highest monthly level in seven years. Shipments to the United States, India and Europe increased and added barrels to global supply.

Markets show a split in positioning: options and some commercial traders increased long exposure, while non-commercial futures traders remained net short and funding rates stayed flat. The IMF identified the status of the Strait of Hormuz and global inventory levels as key factors that could change the price path.