ExxonMobil: Oil stocks near critical lows; Brent may reach $150

Neil Chapman, ExxonMobil’s senior vice president, warned investors at a conference that global oil inventories are only weeks from critical lows and projected Brent crude could reach $150-$160 a barrel if physical supply does not recover.

Chapman gave a timeline of roughly two to three weeks before shortages become disruptive, adding that ExxonMobil’s internal supply models point to prices moving toward the $150 range once physical buyers begin to compete for scarce cargoes.

The International Energy Agency reported that observed global oil inventories fell by about 246 million barrels in March and April. The pace of drawdown accelerated after shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz began.

Analysts tracking the region estimate cumulative supply losses tied to the Strait of Hormuz could top one billion barrels by month-end and that the chokepoint’s closure has removed roughly one-fifth of world oil flows.

Releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and other government stockpile sales have reduced some of the shortfall, but those buffers are shrinking.

Traders and independent analysts report commercial tanks and pipeline stocks linked to private buyers have thinned faster than headline government figures indicate, leaving the physical market tighter than futures prices reflect.

Market indicators include widening price spreads between crude grades and rising margins for refined products.

Analysts at HFI Research estimate the market is about 9 million barrels short of a minimal spare level for gasoline and distillate. They project that available buffer could be exhausted in two to three weeks, around mid-June, as peak summer driving and hurricane season begin.

Energy funds and equity investors have started reweighting portfolios toward oil producers as supply visibility has deteriorated.

Analysts warn higher crude prices would lift inflation expectations and could complicate central bank decisions on interest rates.

‘We’re approaching unheard of inventory levels,’ Chapman warned.

Independent analysts note that even small additional supply interruptions could trigger gasoline shortages in regions facing peak driving demand. If Brent moves above $150, analysts expect market rebalancing would most likely occur through reduced demand rather than an immediate increase in available supply.

Whether physical flows recover or inventories fall into the critical range in the coming weeks will determine how quickly prices and broader financial markets respond.