Ethereum June: ETF Outflows, Whale Accumulation; $1,964 Support

Ethereum closed May down 12.6% after US ETH spot ETFs posted $401.62 million in net outflows. May’s outflow is the third-largest monthly withdrawal since late 2025, behind November 2025’s $1.42 billion and December 2025’s $616.82 million negatives.

ETF flows have tracked closely with monthly price moves in 2026. March saw roughly $46.0 million in net outflows and ETH closed the month up 7.07%. April recorded $355.98 million in net inflows and ETH rose 7.38%. May reversed to $401.62 million in net outflows and ETH declined 12.6% for the month.

Historical seasonality for June shows average returns of -6.74% and a median of -5.65% since 2016. Three Junes have closed higher over the past decade.

On-chain supply held by large, off-exchange addresses rose from 124.15 million ETH on May 1 to 125.17 million ETH by late May, an increase of about 1.02 million ETH, according to Santiment data. At recent prices, that accumulation corresponds to roughly $2 billion. The Glassnode Hodler Net Position Change, which measures mid-to-long-term holder accumulation and distribution, has been positive since February 24 and expanded again from mid-May; the indicator was deeply negative during February 2026 when ETH fell about 19.6%.

Technical analysis on the two-day chart shows an inverted cup pattern that peaked in mid-April and returned to the pattern’s origin, forming a dome shape. A short rebound from current levels would form a handle on an inverted cup-and-handle pattern. A hidden bullish divergence between price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appeared between March 28 and May 27, with price near a higher low and RSI at a lower low. The divergence would be confirmed if the next two-day candle closes above $1,964.

Market price traded near $1,977 at press time. Glassnode cost-basis data shows a lower cluster between $2,059 and $2,075 holding about 1.37 million ETH and a higher cluster between $2,154 and $2,170 holding roughly 1.24 million ETH. These clusters align with Fibonacci retracement levels from the late-March low to the mid-April peak: the 0.618 retracement is near $2,055 and the 0.5 level near $2,134.

Two consecutive two-day closes below $1,964 would confirm a breakdown of the inverted cup-and-handle pattern and project a measured target near $1,545, a decline of about 21% from current levels. The 1.0 Fibonacci level at $1,798 would serve as an interim support. If $1,964 holds, the near-term price path could reach the $2,055–$2,134 resistance band.