Dollar Nears 101 as Bitcoin Holds Near $80,605

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is advancing toward 101 after forming a double bottom on the daily chart. Bitcoin trades near $80,605, up about 0.97% over 24 hours and roughly 8.7% over the past 30 days. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.97 billion in inflows in April.

On technical charts, the DXY has moved above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at 98.548 and is trading near 99.12. A W-shaped base across April and May appears on the daily chart, and a measured target around 101.075 aligns just above a 100.393 supply zone that corresponds to March–April highs and the 1.0 Fibonacci extension. Momentum indicators show the Relative Strength Index climbing toward 60 and the MACD histogram turning positive. A daily close below the 0.382 Fibonacci level at 97.408 would invalidate the current bullish setup.

Data since 2011 show an inverse pattern between the dollar and Bitcoin in major cycles. Bitcoin’s large expansion phases in 2013, 2017 and 2020 coincided with periods when the DXY was below 90. Conversely, DXY rallies in 2014, 2018 and 2022 lined up with steep Bitcoin drawdowns of roughly 60% or more.

Correlation measures in 2026 have varied. Late January and early February registered near-perfect positive daily correlation, with both assets falling and later recovering. A similar positive correlation appeared in mid-March and early April. From mid-April through May the relationship flipped to a strong negative correlation, with the dollar rallying while Bitcoin consolidated near $80,000, producing volatile correlation readings.

Market structure has changed as institutional flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have grown. April’s $1.97 billion was the largest monthly inflow of 2026 so far. Flows from large issuers, including BlackRock, have increased the share of institutional buying compared with prior retail-driven cycles.

The coming weeks will see market participants watch whether the DXY clears the 100.393 supply zone and whether Bitcoin holds or rises as the dollar approaches 101. Traders and analysts say ETF flow reports, on-chain indicators and dollar momentum will be monitored together to assess whether Bitcoin price moves follow dollar swings or reflect asset-specific demand.