Delphi: Up to 94% of Airdrop Wallets Dump Within 90 Days

Delphi Digital tracked 3.7 million wallets over five years and reported that between 78% and 94% of recipient wallets for six major airdrops moved most of their airdropped tokens within 90 days. The analysis covered tokens including Uniswap (UNI), Arbitrum (ARB), Jupiter (JUP) and Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) across four blockchains.

The firm compared short- and medium-term sell-offs and found that exit rates rose over time. Real dump rates were 4 to 11 percentage points higher at day 90 than at day 30, a gap the report says makes commonly cited 30‑day figures appear optimistic.

The report lists four reasons for the pattern. First, the cost of creating fake “sybil” wallets has fallen as automated farming tools spread and detection tools have struggled to keep pace. Second, some upcoming issuers, including tokenized treasuries and regulated decentralized finance platforms, are expected to avoid sending tokens to anonymous addresses. Third, acquisition economics can be poor: Delphi estimates Arbitrum distributed about $1.16 billion to wallets that largely sold their tokens within a month. Fourth, the analysis finds that a few high-profile success stories did not offset the broad pattern of rapid selling.

Delphi noted early shifts in token design that aim to reduce immediate selling pressure. Some projects have used buybacks, locks and performance-based vesting. For example, Hyperliquid (HYPE) used buybacks funded by more than $1 billion in revenue, Jito (JTO) kept its eligible recipient pool small to limit farming, MegaETH locked 53% of its supply behind performance targets, and Pendle directs roughly 80% of revenue into buybacks for stakers. “Token distribution is moving from handouts to performance,” the report states.

Independent tracking also showed similar outcomes. One trader who logged 30 airdrops received since December 2024 found only one of those tokens still trading above its launch price at the time of the log, while several had fallen nearly to zero.

The report notes that airdrops have been a common method for projects to seed user bases and reward early adopters. It records that some token issuers are redesigning distribution mechanics to tie rewards to ongoing participation or to route revenues into buybacks in an effort to reduce rapid sell-offs and align token incentives with longer-term engagement.