CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Rally Fueled by Futures, Not Spot

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju attributes Bitcoin’s recent price recovery to activity in perpetual futures rather than fresh spot buying. Bitcoin traded near $77,500 after failing to push past $80,000, and April’s market showed a widening gap between futures positioning and on-chain spot flows.

A CryptoQuant chart of 30-day demand showed perpetual futures demand moving into positive territory during April while spot demand remained below zero for most of the month. CryptoQuant’s data indicated that 30-day spot demand was still contracting even as the price recovered.

Perpetual futures can be opened with leverage and closed quickly, while spot purchases require new capital to take available supply. CryptoQuant reported rising open interest and higher funding rates over the month, signals consistent with increased futures activity, even as the underlying spot bid stayed weak.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded large inflows in mid-April, with $786 million in one week followed by $823 million the next week, led by BlackRock’s IBIT. MicroStrategy purchased 34,164 BTC for about $2.54 billion at an average price of $74,395, bringing its total holdings to 815,061 BTC. Despite those flows, CryptoQuant measured 30-day apparent demand near negative 87,600 BTC earlier in April.

Ki Young Ju wrote on Twitter: “open interest is rising, but on-chain apparent demand remains net negative despite ETF inflows and Saylor buys,” and added, “historically, bear markets end when both spot and futures demand recover.”

Market participants are watching whether on-chain spot demand turns positive in the coming weeks, which would indicate fresh capital absorbing supply. If spot demand does not turn positive while futures positioning leads price moves, traders will track funding rates and open interest for signs of rapid position unwinds.