Crypto market edges higher as Trump’s Iran stance eases risk

The crypto market gained $3.42 billion over 24 hours to a total capitalization of $2.54 trillion as reports of a patient Iran strategy reduced the geopolitical risk premium. Bitcoin traded around $77,080, up roughly 0.14% over the period, and Ondo Finance’s ONDO token rose to about $0.44 from a weekend low near $0.37.

Markets rallied into Monday after the Iran stance coincided with a fall in Brent crude of about 4.44% to $98.90 and gains in Asian equities, including the Nikkei 225 moving above 65,000. Crypto capitalization recovered from a Saturday trough near $2.45 trillion as traders adjusted positions amid mixed signals on U.S.-Iran negotiations.

A social brief on Monday indicated the deal could be unraveling under pressure from Israeli and U.S. domestic allies. Two sources close to the negotiation team reported the U.S. side was stepping back from the agreement, adding uncertainty that left some market participants cautious.

Analysts note the total market cap must clear $2.57 trillion, the 0.236 Fibonacci level, to open the next upside targets at $2.64 trillion and $2.70 trillion. If $2.45 trillion holds as support, the path back to $2.57 trillion remains viable; a break below $2.45 trillion would expose deeper downside toward $2.38 trillion.

Bitcoin has been trading inside an ascending channel that formed after roughly a 40% drop from mid-January. Buy volume has declined since mid-May, indicating thinner bids even as the price holds. Near-term risk centers on the channel’s lower boundary at about $74,124, roughly 4% below current levels; a daily close below that level would expose the $70,479 channel floor. A daily close above $78,372 would target the upper trendline near $85,249 and the 0.618 Fibonacci level.

ONDO rose about 20% from its weekend low to trade near $0.44 on Monday, following signs of accumulation by large holders earlier in the week. The token needs a daily close above $0.45 to confirm renewed strength. Sales pressure has been visible around $0.47, and a clear breakout above $0.48 would open a run toward $0.58. Failure to hold current levels could see ONDO slip back to $0.42 or $0.39. The 20-day exponential moving average is approaching the 200-day EMA, and a bullish crossover would provide additional confirmation if it occurs.

A false rumor about a surfing accident involving a prominent exchange founder triggered a surge in meme-token activity, spurring launches such as SEAZ and RIPCZ on Solana and the BNB Chain. Most newly created tokens recorded market capitalizations below $10,000.

On the institutional side, the Ethereum Foundation indicated it is maintaining reduced ETH sales and prioritizing organizational longevity over expanded operations, a shift that continues to limit outflows. Traders described weekend price action as liquidity-driven as participants weighed the evolving geopolitical picture and awaited clearer signals on the U.S.-Iran negotiations. The market’s immediate technical focus remains on clearing the $2.57 trillion resistance while keeping $2.45 trillion and $2.38 trillion as key support levels.