Cowen: Bitcoin’s four-year cycle holds; bottom due Oct 2026

Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into the Cryptoverse, says Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle is still in place and that the next cyclical bottom should arrive around October 2026. He made the projection following Bitcoin’s early October top and the subsequent price decline.

Cowen pointed to the timing of the recent peak as evidence. The current cycle’s top occurred on day 1,162 from the prior low, close to earlier cycle peaks recorded on day 1,059 and day 1,168. Bitcoin reached an all-time high near $126,080 on October 6 and has since fallen to about $75,650, a drop of roughly 40%.

On market psychology, Cowen cited historical stock-index behavior to argue that a top formed without extreme euphoria can still precede a sustained downturn. “Topping on apathy doesn’t mean you don’t have a bear market,” he said, referencing earlier patterns in U.S. equity markets.

He evaluated the recent counter-trend rally and found it weaker than the post-2022 recovery. The current rebound lasted about 16 weeks, which lies within the 15- to 25-week range seen in previous midterm-year recoveries, but the percentage gain is smaller than the 46% bounce off the 2022 low.

Cowen’s base case calls for Bitcoin to revisit roughly $60,000 later this year before a durable bull market could resume. He rejected the view that factors such as spot exchange-traded funds, corporate treasury purchases or talk of Bitcoin as a reserve asset have broken the four-year pattern, noting similar narratives appeared in past cycles and did not prevent subsequent declines.

He acknowledged his projection could be incorrect and said analysts claiming the cycle has ended bear the burden of proof. Cowen’s October 2026 forecast aligns with midterm-year lows in 2014, 2018 and 2022 and matches other analysts’ recent estimates for the same window.