BlackRock: AI Capex Is Shaping Markets, Rivaling Policy

BlackRock’s Investment Institute says corporate AI capital spending, which it estimates could reach $5-$8 trillion this decade, has become a dominant factor shaping markets and rivaling central bank policy. The firm summed the shift up as “micro is macro.”

In a note from strategists Jean Boivin and Wei Li, BlackRock pointed to roughly $725 billion in capital expenditure by large technology companies this year, a figure about 10% higher than estimates made before first-quarter earnings. The strategists wrote that spending by a small group of firms is now affecting macroeconomic outcomes.

BlackRock’s thesis is that concentrated capital expenditures can move gross domestic product, corporate profits and interest rates in ways that traditionally were the domain of broader policy. The note cited recent quarterly earnings growth of about 57% at the so-called Magnificent Seven and identified AI investment as the main driver behind recent U.S. equity gains.

The strategists wrote that AI infrastructure investment at scale gives a few firms outsized influence on markets and on capital allocation across the economy. They added that AI “could be the first innovation in 150 years strong enough to lift U.S. growth above 2%,” while stressing that the outcome remains uncertain.

Other market pressures are interacting with the capex story. BlackRock noted inflationary pressures that were already elevated before a recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz increased energy risks. The firm said markets now price about three additional rate hikes in Europe, while U.S. policy is seen as largely on hold.

On portfolio positioning, BlackRock remains overweight U.S. and emerging-market equities and cautioned that long-term Treasuries no longer provide the portfolio ballast they once did. The note recommended broader diversification that includes private markets and hedge funds rather than relying primarily on traditional cross-asset hedges.

BlackRock also highlighted effects on crypto and other risk assets. Bitcoin traded near $80,646, roughly 36% below its October 2025 peak, and Ethereum sat around $2,260, more than 50% below its August 2025 high. The firm said capital that once flowed more broadly into risk assets is being diverted toward AI capex and energy security measures, increasing competition for funding.

The note warned that rising leverage, weaker traditional hedges and a concentration of market drivers leave less room for passive positioning. Whether AI spending sustains its growth premium or begins to crowd out other investments is the central uncertainty BlackRock identified; the firm said the answer will likely set the tone for risk markets through the second half of 2026.