Bitcoin long-term holders not yet in historical bottom zone

Bitcoin was trading near $67,002 at the time of the report. On-chain data from Glassnode shows long-term holder net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) around 0.25, long-term holders control roughly 15 million BTC and long-term holder relative unrealized loss is near 15.5%.

Glassnode’s charts place the long-term holder NUPL at the upper edge of a historical band that has coincided with prior cycle lows. Previous touches of that band aligned with the lowest prices in 2012, 2015, 2019 and 2022. The indicator has not moved into the deeper accumulation bands associated with those past troughs.

The supply held by long-term holders recently reached an all-time high at about 15 million BTC. In past cycles, long-term holders absorbed coins from shorter-term sellers during the middle phase of a bear market and later distributed those coins into a subsequent uptrend. Current on-chain balances show accumulation by the long-term cohort while selling pressure is concentrated among shorter-term holders.

Long-term holder Relative Unrealized Loss sits at about 15.5%, which corresponds to roughly $0.15 of unrealized loss for every dollar held. Glassnode posted on X: “At $69.5k, LTH Relative Unrealized Loss sits at 15.5%. For every dollar long-term holders’ bags are worth today, they are carrying roughly 15 cents in unrealized loss. At cyclical extremes, that number has exceeded 50 cents on the dollar. Stress is present, but the long-term holder base remains far from the levels of pain that have historically marked cycle lows.” In prior cycle bottoms the metric exceeded 50%.

Analysts using the on-chain metrics outline scenario levels tied to those readings. A decline into the mid-$50,000s, near $56,000, would increase long-term holder unrealized losses toward roughly 30–40%. A larger drop toward about $44,000 could occur if NUPL falls into the red zone. Conversely, reclaiming roughly $105,000 would put long-term holders back in broad profit.

Bitcoin’s price has fallen about 11.6% over the past week and about 36.3% over the past year. The charts and metrics described above are the basis for the scenario estimates referenced by on-chain analysts.