Bitcoin Falls to Four-Month Low; Signs Point to Late-Cycle Bottom

Bitcoin fell to roughly $61,500 in early Asian trading, its lowest level since February. The price has slipped about 20% over the past month, and more than $1 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated within 24 hours.

Sustained outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have removed a source of institutional demand. Market data show overall demand for Bitcoin, combining speculative and spot flows, contracting at an approximate monthly pace of 232,000 BTC. The decline has also prompted activity from holders who had been inactive, increasing selling pressure.

Ed Engel of Compass Point reported that long-term holders, largely dormant from February through April, sold about $2.4 billion worth of Bitcoin. He also noted that roughly 26% of Bitcoin sold over the past 30 days came from investors who had purchased above $90,000, a pattern he described as “top-buyer capitulation” and said it strengthens the view that the bear market is in its later stages.

Scott Melker, host of The Wolf Of All Streets, wrote that Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index has entered an oversold range previously seen at major lows in 2015, 2018 and 2022. He added that momentum readings and timing indicators have aligned in ways that have coincided with past cycle lows, while stressing that a bottom typically unfolds over time rather than at a single moment.

Melker pointed to timing across past cycles: previous lows occurred about 777, 889 and 924 days after their respective halving events. Bitcoin is roughly 770 days past the April 2024 halving, placing it within the historical window when earlier cycles have tended to run out of downward momentum.

Joao Wedson, chief executive of Alphractal, projected that Bitcoin could build stronger momentum from 2027 onward, citing patterns from past multi-year rallies. He framed that outlook as a longer-term view rather than a forecast for the immediate sessions ahead.

The current phase follows the April 2024 halving, which reduced new supply, and several months of shifting flows into and out of spot ETFs. Market participants attribute the recent wave of selling primarily to investor decisions and ETF flows, rather than to moves in equity markets or commodities.

Analysts say the near-term path for prices will become clearer in coming sessions as leverage unwinds and demand indicators evolve.