Bitcoin Electrical Cost at $48,694 Emerges as Potential Floor

Capriole Investments’ Electrical Cost, an on-chain estimate of the average electricity expense to mine one bitcoin, currently stands at $48,694 while BTC trades near $63,000. The metric is calculated by Capriole founder Charles Edwards and tracks only the energy portion of miners’ production costs.

The Electrical Cost differs from a related Production Cost metric, which adds hardware and overhead and therefore shows a higher figure. Analysts have noted the Electrical Cost has historically remained below market price and coincided with prior cycle lows in 2015, 2018, 2020 and 2022.

A monthly chart shared by analyst Ted Pillows shows the Electrical Cost tracking beneath bitcoin’s price across cycles. Pillows wrote that, barring a severe shock such as a global recession or a pandemic, a bottom near $50,000 is the most likely outcome based on the chart. Edwards added a caution: “Yes it has dropped below, but only for a couple weeks in history,” indicating brief breaches during acute shocks.

The Electrical Cost sits within a ladder of technical and on-chain supports. Bitcoin tagged the 200-week moving average near $62,000 earlier this month, marking the first test of that level this cycle. Below that are the 300-week average and the realized price, both near $54,000. The $48,694 Electrical Cost falls just below that band. Several independent charts identify a deeper cycle-low zone in the $40,000s if the higher supports fail.

Timing estimates from other analysts point to a similar window for a cycle bottom. Benjamin Cowen places a base-case bottom in October 2026, and a halving-day count produces a comparable timeframe of roughly 125 days ahead. Pillows’ chart places the potential bottom near the Electrical Cost reading.

Market participants say the main condition that would push prices decisively below the Electrical Cost is a severe macro shock. Edwards highlighted events such as a global recession or a pandemic-style disruption as the types of pressure that have historically forced price below the line. The 200-week average lost support in 2022 when bitcoin traded under it for months, showing that any support level can fail under sustained stress.

Upcoming macro events that could affect risk appetite include the Federal Reserve meeting on June 17 and a Bank of Japan policy decision. A weekly close under about $54,000 would expose the Electrical Cost at $48,694 as the next major test; a breach of that level would open the $40,000s zone identified by multiple cycle charts.