Bitcoin Drops Below $77,000 After 200-Day MA Rejection

Bitcoin fell below $77,000 after a sharp rejection at its 200-day moving average, reversing from resistance near $82,400 after a roughly 37% rally from April lows.

In a May 20 report, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno wrote that the current structure mirrors March 2022, when bitcoin rose about 43% before hitting the 200-day moving average and entering a multi-month decline. He wrote, “In bear markets, the 200-day MA has consistently acted as the boundary between relief rally territory and trend resumption,” calling it a strong technical confirmation that the bear market remained structurally intact.

CryptoQuant’s on-chain and market indicators show speculative demand in perpetual futures thinned near $82,000 and flows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs flipped from net buying to net selling in recent days. The Coinbase bitcoin price premium has been negative since late April. Unrealized profit margins reached 17.7% on May 5, the highest level since June 2025.

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has returned to extremely bearish readings. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 29, inside the fear range used to measure market sentiment.

Primary on-chain support is identified near $70,000, aligned with traders’ on-chain realized price. Deeper technical supports include the 200-day moving average around $61,400 and the 300-day moving average near $54,500.

Trading analyst The Scalping Pro outlined two possible paths from current levels: a bounce from the $77,000 area toward mid-range resistance followed by another decline, or a break below $77,000 that leads to a lower cycle bottom. The analyst described the second path as more likely.

Market participants will monitor ETF flows, on-chain demand metrics and price action around the 200-day moving average for signals on whether the recent pullback is a short correction or the resumption of a longer downtrend.