Bitcoin down 50% as ETF outflows, mega‑IPOs drain liquidity

Bitcoin has fallen roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak. Market data point to net spot ETF redemptions in May, Strategy’s first bitcoin disposal in four years and a heavy IPO calendar as factors removing near‑term risk capital. Analysts using a four‑year cycle framework project a possible trough window in Q4 2026.

The four‑year cycle framework notes major peaks in late 2013, late 2017, late 2021 and October 2025. Troughs in prior cycles occurred about 12 months after each peak: January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022. Past peak‑to‑trough drops were about 77%–85%; the current drawdown is about 50% so far.

Price action seven months after the October 2025 high shows a sharp initial decline, months of consolidation, a rally toward the 200‑day moving average and a subsequent rejection. That sequence resembles the market patterns observed during the 2018 and 2022 selloffs.

Spot bitcoin ETFs moved to net redemptions in May after inflows earlier in 2025. May outflows were roughly ten times the $206 million redeemed in February, according to flow data. Some market participants view the reversal as institutional allocators reducing exposure ahead of other capital demands rather than acting solely as permanent buyers.

Corporate treasury behavior changed in late May. Strategy sold 32 bitcoin between May 26 and May 31, its first net sale in four years. The disclosed sale amounted to about $2.5 million in cash value. Market participants treated the sale as a sign that a major corporate holder adjusted its position.

A crowded IPO calendar is also drawing capital. SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic are expected to raise more than $240 billion combined from June through year‑end. SpaceX opened a roadshow on June 4 with pricing planned for June 11 and first trading planned for June 12, targeting a $75 billion raise at about a $1.75 trillion valuation and allocating roughly $22 billion for retail investors. Allocators have been freeing balance‑sheet room ahead of these listings, which reduces available capital for other risk assets.

The IPO timeline can affect liquidity in two phases. The first phase channels cash into primary offerings and pre‑listing commitments. The second phase returns liquidity when lock‑up periods expire and insiders and early investors can sell shares. SpaceX’s lock‑up schedule begins releasing insider shares in the second half of 2026, with broader liquidity around the 180‑day mark in December. OpenAI and Anthropic are expected to follow a similar sequence, extending post‑lock‑up liquidity into 2027.

The four‑year framework is linked to bitcoin’s scheduled halvings, which cut new issuance on a fixed timetable. The framework describes a cycle in which rising prices attract additional capital and leverage, and accumulated positions unwind over months after a peak, with terminal lows historically arriving in Q4 of the year following a peak.

Measured against previous cycles at the same elapsed time, the current drawdown sits between the midpoints and endpoints of prior patterns. Seven months after the 2017 and 2021 peaks, bitcoin was down about 65% and later fell to final troughs near 84% and 77%, respectively. At seven months after October 2025, the 50% decline is closer to a midpoint based on those earlier movements.

Market participants are monitoring ETF flows, corporate treasury activity and the IPO calendar for signs of when selling pressure might change and when recycled liquidity could return. The information in this article is for reporting purposes and not investment advice.