Adam Back: Bitcoin 200-week average tops $61,000

Blockstream CEO Adam Back flagged on May 30 that Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average climbed past $61,000. The indicator rose roughly $1,000 in under a month from early May, a pace Back linked to steady absorption of supply by long-term holders.

The 200-week moving average calculates nearly four years of weekly Bitcoin closes to smooth short-term price swings. Market participants watch the line because it highlights longer-term trend levels and has served as a support floor at previous cycle bottoms.

At the time Back flagged the level, spot Bitcoin was trading well above the 200-week average, leaving a visible gap between current prices and the long-term line. Traders monitor such gaps to compare near-term prices with the averaged trend.

The 2022 bear market is the only recent period when Bitcoin closed a weekly candle below the 200-week moving average before reclaiming it. The indicator has trended higher across each Bitcoin cycle to date.

On-chain metrics and trading data show continued accumulation by long-term holders. Historical patterns indicate purchases near the 200-week moving average have often occurred at prices below the long-term trend.

Back referenced a remark attributed to the late investor Charlie Munger: “If all you ever did was buy high-quality stocks at the 200-week moving average, you would beat the S&P 500 by a large margin over time. The problem is, few human beings have that kind of discipline.” He added that Munger and Warren Buffett “never got bitcoin,” and linked those views to their preference for physical businesses.

Whether the 200-week moving average continues to rise will depend on future demand from institutional and retail buyers relative to selling pressure. Back has promoted gradual accumulation strategies aligned with long-term trend measures rather than active trading.