Trump Iran Remarks Push Brent Toward $100 Test

In remarks on May 19, President Trump predicted the conflict with Iran would end “fast” and said oil prices would fall sharply once a deal is reached.

Brent crude traded at $104.70 on May 22. Hedge funds and other non‑commercial traders reduced bullish positions: Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed speculative net long positions peaked at 233,600 contracts the week ending March 28 and fell to 169,900 in the May 16 release, a decline of about 64,000 contracts (27 percent).

Options activity in the U.S. Brent ETF BNO shows more put buying. The BNO put‑call volume ratio rose from 0.15 on May 15 to 0.30 on May 21, reflecting increased put volume relative to calls. Overall positioning remains net‑long by aggregate measures, while downside hedging has increased.

On the price chart, Brent has traded inside an ascending parallel channel since April 17 and has moved to the channel’s lower boundary. The price recently fell below the 20‑day exponential moving average at $105.41. The next technical tests are the 50‑day EMA at $100.27 and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement near $100.83.

A drop below the $100 level would coincide with a channel breakdown and open a measured downside target near $86.37. Intermediate support levels between the current price and that target include $97.42 and $92.56. The 200‑day EMA sits at $82.43 and a 1.618 extension is near $68.49.

To resume a stronger upside trend, Brent would need to reclaim $108.47, and a daily close above $115.30 would negate the bearish technical setup.