Pentagon posts first ‘Alien Files,’ Polymarket bets top $33M
The Pentagon posted its first declassified UAP files Friday as Polymarket traders wagered more than $33 million on bets that U.S. officials will confirm extraterrestrial life by year-end.
On Friday the Department of War posted the first declassified files on Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena and launched the Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters (PURSUE). Officials published Release 01 to a public WAR.GOV/UFO portal and said additional tranches would be posted every few weeks. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth tweeted that the Department is ‘in lockstep with President Trump’ and urged private-sector review of the cases.
At the time of Release 01 there was no formal presidential declassification announcement. The Department described the rollout as a staged unsealing process intended to allow ongoing review and private-sector analysis of unresolved incidents.
Traders on Polymarket reacted within minutes. Polymarket’s flagship market on whether a senior U.S. official will confirm extraterrestrial life by Dec. 31 showed about a 19% probability on May 8. Cumulative volume across related markets passed $33 million.
A separate Polymarket contract asking if President Trump will declassify new UFO files this year was trading with a Dec. 31 outcome priced near 83%. Earlier this year a $16 million market on 2025 declassification resolved ‘Yes’ after late-session bids and a contested vote by an oracle provider known as UMA.
Users criticized that earlier resolution, arguing the dispute process allowed token holders to override trader sentiment. One user, @Kierbnak, wrote that UMA appeared manipulated and called the result a scam. Platform observers noted the dispute revived concerns about token-weighted governance and the role of oracles in certifying ambiguous outcomes.
Polymarket is a crypto-native platform where traders buy and sell contracts tied to future events. UMA is an oracle and dispute framework that can certify outcomes for some markets.
Participants noted that rolling releases could produce repeated market moves as each tranche appears rather than a single disclosure event. New tranches are likely to shift prices and prompt further review of how ambiguous cases are adjudicated in prediction markets.
