CLARITY Act odds fall to 47% as White House meets law enforcement

Polymarket traders now put the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act’s chance of becoming law in 2026 at 47%. The market price fell from roughly 74% a month ago as the legislative window narrows ahead of the August Senate recess.

The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill in a 15-9 vote on May 14, with two Democrats crossing to support it. The measure still needs 60 votes to clear the full Senate.

Forecasts have become more cautious in recent weeks. Alex Thorn of Galaxy Research cut his 2026 passage estimate to 60% from 75% on June 5, citing a tighter Senate calendar.

Administration officials hosted law enforcement groups at the White House on Wednesday to discuss remaining objections, according to people familiar with the meeting. The discussion focused on developer protections drawn from the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act; critics say those provisions could weaken efforts to combat money laundering and other illicit finance.

Ethics provisions in the bill also remain unresolved. Several Senate Democrats have indicated they will not support the bill unless law enforcement’s concerns are addressed. Senator Angela Alsobrooks has withheld support for a floor vote until negotiators settle ethics language and other disputes.

More than 200 companies and trade groups sent a June 7 letter urging Senate leaders to schedule a vote. Signatories included the Blockchain Association, Stand With Crypto, the Crypto Council for Innovation and the Digital Chamber. Senator Cynthia Lummis wrote on social media: “I did not spend years on this issue to watch another country write the rules that govern the assets Americans invented. Let’s pass the Clarity Act.”

Negotiators face a narrow window to resolve competing demands before the Senate recess in August. Until law enforcement signals its concerns have been addressed, the Democratic crossover votes needed to reach 60 will remain uncertain.