XRP nears $1.36 as whales and smart money trim positions

Smart-money selling on May 17 coincided with whale distributions that pushed XRP back to the lower edge of a rising channel that has held since Feb. 6. The Smart Money Index fell below its signal line on May 17, mirroring a late‑April crossover that preceded an about 7% slide in XRP.

Technical indicators show short-term momentum weakening. The 20-day exponential moving average has met the 50-day EMA and is poised to close beneath it, which would be the first short-term bearish EMA crossover in months. Price returned to the upward channel after a May 14 peak.

On-chain data shows larger holders increased their share of supply before the recent slide. The cohort holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP rose from 16.81% on April 19 to a 17.63% peak on May 12 and has since trimmed its share to about 17.37%. Glassnode’s Exchange Net Position Change has recorded net inflows to exchanges for almost a month. The May 17 reading was 9.14 million XRP, the smallest single-day inflow since April 24, but still a net inflow.

XRP is down about 24% year to date and roughly 3.5% over the past month. The price sits roughly 1% above a $1.36 daily close that would confirm a breakdown of the rising channel. A daily close below $1.36 would open a path to $1.27, about 7% below current levels. For a stronger upside move, XRP would need to reclaim $1.48, with the next resistance near $1.56. The channel’s upper boundary remains well above current trading levels.

A clean daily close below $1.36 combined with continued net inflows to exchanges would confirm a breakdown of the channel. Without a shift to net exchange outflows, the channel’s lower edge will be the primary pivot for traders monitoring the next direction.