Wintermute: Ethereum ‘wrong asset’ for macro as ETH/BTC drops
Wintermute called Ethereum the ‘wrong asset for this macro’ after ETH fell 10.2% last week and the ETH/BTC ratio hit 0.0275, its lowest since July 2025.
Market maker Wintermute wrote that Ether fell 10.2% last week and the ETH/BTC ratio dropped to 0.0275, its lowest reading since July 2025. The firm added that Ether is underperforming across both spot and derivatives markets and posted: “ETH -10.2%, continuing to underperform across spot and derivatives. ETH/BTC pressing 0.0275, funding softer, relative implied vol elevated. Wrong asset for this macro.”
Wintermute highlighted softer funding rates and higher relative implied volatility as indicators of pressure on Ether versus Bitcoin.
Institutional flows showed reduced demand. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $255 million in outflows last week, the largest weekly withdrawal since late January. Spot Bitcoin ETFs also registered net outflows over the same period.
Exchange balances pointed to growing sell-side liquidity. ETH held on Binance rose from about 3.4 million to nearly 3.8 million during May, according to CryptoQuant. Total Ether reserves across exchanges increased from 14.5 million to 14.94 million in the same span.
On-chain wallet data showed mixed activity. Wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million ETH increased their balances from 6.15 million to 6.54 million ETH between May 1 and May 20, an accumulation of roughly 390,000 ETH. Mid-tier wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH cut holdings from 27.77 million to 27.27 million ETH during that period.
Market structure measures indicated one-sided positioning. Binance’s weekly Taker Buy Sell Ratio fell to 0.91, the lowest reading since September 2023; readings below 1 indicate sellers dominated order flow. Analyst Darkfost noted that Ether traded in a broad range between roughly $1,500 and $4,000 while correcting about 9% over seven days, and added: ‘The more aggressively investors position themselves on the short side, the greater the risk of a short squeeze becomes.’
Traders will monitor upcoming macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve commentary for potential catalysts that could change positioning in spot and derivatives markets.
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