Silver Near $121 Peak as Dollar Slides, $99 Test
Silver trades near $79 after a 3% intraday gain as the U.S. dollar weakens. A sustained move above $99 would clear the next major resistance en route to the $121 all-time high.
Silver traded near $79 after a roughly 3% intraday gain, following a session that cleared a multi-month resistance shelf around $78. The metal has been trading inside a falling channel since reaching an all-time high near $121 in late January, after a 167% rally from an October 2025 low of about $45.
Friday’s price action pushed silver toward the channel’s upper trendline. The $78 level corresponds to the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement and had capped several recent rallies. A sustained reclaim of $78 would expose $90 at the 0.382 Fibonacci level and then $99 at the 0.5 retracement.
The U.S. Dollar Index has been sliding since early April inside its own descending channel. Silver typically moves inversely to the dollar because a weaker dollar lowers the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset and makes dollar-priced metals cheaper for foreign buyers. Oil prices fell about 7% to 8% on May 6 on optimism around a possible U.S.-Iran agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz; that development reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar and put additional downward pressure on the index. A further DXY decline of about 1.55% would reach the technical channel breakdown point used in some models.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitments of Traders report through April 28 shows total open interest in silver futures fell by 14,187 contracts to 101,275. Non-commercial traders reduced long positions by about 1,919 contracts and short positions by about 2,359 contracts. Net speculative positioning remained long at roughly a 4.4-to-1 ratio, with 31,314 long contracts versus 7,154 short contracts. Commercial hedgers accounted for about 69.2% of open interest on the short side.
Price levels chart the path back to the January peak. Reclaiming $78 opens $90, where a meaningful breach of the channel’s upper trendline would be expected. The $99 level has been the upper bound of several failed rallies after the January peak and aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement. Above $99, the next technical targets are $108 (0.618), $120 (0.786) and the $121 record. From current levels, rising to $99 implies about a 24% gain; reaching $121 implies roughly a 53% rise.
On the downside, failure to hold $78 would likely keep silver inside the falling channel and expose a slide toward $64 and $60 at the channel’s lower band. A drop below $60 would alter the technical path back to the record high.
Market participants are monitoring dollar direction and futures positioning through the month to assess whether silver can extend its recent gains.
