Retail Investors Drive Record Inflows into Chip ETFs
Retail investors bought about $3.2 billion of semiconductor ETFs since January 2025 and added roughly $5.5 billion to two major chip ETFs in April 2026 amid $600–720 billion in planned 2026 AI capex.
J.P. Morgan data through April 29, 2026 show retail investors have bought about $3.2 billion of semiconductor exchange-traded funds since January 2025. In April 2026 the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) split a record $5.5 billion in monthly inflows, topping the prior monthly record set in December 2025. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has risen about 38.7% since January 2025.
Major cloud and technology companies have guided combined capital expenditures of $600 billion to $720 billion for 2026, a 36% to 70% year-over-year increase, with roughly three quarters of that amount aimed at AI infrastructure. Analysts estimate global semiconductor revenue could exceed $1.3 trillion in 2026, the largest annual increase in about two decades. Demand from AI workloads has increased use of high-bandwidth memory, leaving some memory segments tight. Suppliers named by analysts as positioned to benefit include Micron, Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Advances in liquid cooling and data-center efficiency have supported larger data-center builds across the United States and Asia.
Retail activity has accelerated in 2026: cumulative net retail purchases of semiconductor ETFs more than doubled this year compared with prior periods. Since January 2025, individual investors recorded a net $1.0 billion in purchases of SMH. Traders also showed heavier interest in leveraged semiconductor products. Combined daily trading volume in the 3x leveraged Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull ETF (SOXL) and its 3x short counterpart (SOXS) surged to about 330 million shares, a 16-month high. SOXL’s daily volume exceeded 99% of weekly readings over the past five years, indicating elevated trading in both long and short leveraged exposure.
Crypto exchange-traded products did not match the chip funds’ inflows in April. Bitcoin spot funds attracted nearly $2 billion in April, while many Ethereum products posted weaker or negative flows and year-to-date returns for several crypto ETFs were flat or lower. Bitcoin fell about 20% earlier in April and recovered later in the month.
Market participants note specific risks. Leveraged ETFs can suffer path-dependent decay in choppy markets, which can reduce returns over time. Upcoming earnings reports from major cloud and tech companies will be watched to see whether the elevated 2026 AI capex guidance persists.
