Plan C Links US PMI Above 50 to New Bitcoin Rally
Plan C says April US manufacturing PMIs above 50 — ISM 52.7% and S&P Global 54.5% — mark the start of a Bitcoin bull market.
Bitcoin researcher Plan C says April’s U.S. manufacturing PMI readings above 50 mark the start of a new Bitcoin bull market. He pointed to the Institute for Supply Management’s 52.7% print and S&P Global’s revised 54.5% reading for April and circulated a chart tracing PMI and Bitcoin back to 2009. Plan C also cited a January 2026 statistical study that found a strong correlation between PMI readings and BTC returns.
The ISM index returned above 50 in January 2026 after roughly 26 months below that threshold. April’s 52.7% was the highest ISM reading since August 2022. The ISM New Orders sub-index rose to 54.1%, which Plan C described as evidence of accelerating demand entering spring. S&P Global’s U.S. Manufacturing PMI was revised to 54.5 in April, its strongest reading since May 2022. S&P Global reported the fastest new-orders growth in four years and output expanding at the fastest pace since April 2022, and tied part of the strength to stockpiling ahead of pending tariffs and supply pressures related to the Middle East conflict. Business confidence reached its highest level since February 2025.
Plan C argues that market focus on the four-year halving supply cycle has overshadowed the role of manufacturing demand, liquidity and credit conditions for spot prices. Posting his price-and-PMI chart on social media, he wrote: “Bitcoin has NEVER had its FULL, complete bull market EVER while the PMI was below 50 the whole time… It has always followed the business cycle, and once again it is. Like clockwork.”
Other market participants offered caution. Standard Chartered warned Bitcoin could revisit roughly $50,000 before any sustained recovery, citing weakening exchange-traded fund demand and fading institutional flows. Analysts pointed to historical examples where PMI and Bitcoin diverged: the ISM rose in 2014 while Bitcoin fell, and PMI weakness in 2015 coincided with BTC gains. Between 2023 and 2025, PMI remained below 50 for nearly two years while Bitcoin climbed about 700%.
S&P Global’s survey also flagged an 11th consecutive monthly export decline, the first drop in factory employment in nine months and a ten-month high in input cost inflation, items that can influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Bitcoin traded between about $78,000 and $80,000 heading into the next ISM release on June 1, which market participants will use to test the PMI-Bitcoin relationship.
