Goldman lifts Q4 Brent forecast to $90 amid Hormuz closure
Goldman lifts Q4 Brent forecast to $90, citing the Strait of Hormuz closure and estimating April inventory draws of 11–12 million bpd and about 14.5 million bpd in Persian Gulf losses.
Goldman Sachs raised its Brent crude forecast to $90 a barrel for the fourth quarter in a Monday note by analysts Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby. The Q4 estimate is 12.5% higher than the prior $80 forecast. The bank also revised its second- and third-quarter projections upward.
Goldman attributed the revisions to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has sharply reduced exports from the Persian Gulf. The bank estimates roughly 14.5 million barrels per day in Persian Gulf production losses and onshore inventory draws of about 11 to 12 million bpd in April.
For the current quarter Goldman projects a supply deficit of 9.6 million bpd, reversing a surplus from the same period last year. The analysts warned that “extreme inventory draws are not sustainable” and wrote the market may require a steeper demand drop if the disruption continues.
Goldman moved its timeline for a return to normal Gulf exports to the end of June from a prior expectation of mid-May and expects a slower recovery in Gulf production. The bank added that economic risks exceed its crude-price base case because of upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined-product prices and the risk of product shortages.
Diplomatic efforts have shown limited progress. President Donald Trump canceled a planned trip to Pakistan for envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Moscow for talks with President Vladimir Putin after visits to Pakistan and Oman. The status of the Strait of Hormuz remains central to any resolution.
Goldman noted that a rapid reopening of the strait would not immediately stop onshore inventory draws because displaced volumes and logistical bottlenecks could continue to pressure stocks. Total oil exports through the strait have collapsed by about 95% from a normal pace near 20 million bpd; flows reached as much as 23.3 million bpd before the disruption.
Energy markets responded to the revised outlook with further price gains as traders factored in sustained shortfalls and higher refined-product costs. Goldman’s revisions reflect the impact of reduced Persian Gulf exports on global stocks and price expectations.
