Gold Near $4,611, Bulls Test $4,786 Breakout
Gold trades near $4,611 as bulls test a breakout from a descending channel to a $4,786 target, with price compressed below the 50-day moving average.
Gold traded near $4,611 as bulls tested a breakout from a descending one-hour channel to a measured target at $4,786, while price remained compressed below the 50-day moving average.
The metal pulled back from its record high of $5,598 on Jan. 29 and retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci level near $4,376 before recovering. Price has tightened under the 50-day MA on the daily, 4-hour and 1-hour charts. The 50-day MA aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at about $4,842.
A move above the 50-day MA and the $4,842 level would put the 0.236 Fibonacci at about $5,131 as the next reference. A clean break below the daily 0.5 Fibonacci at $4,609 would shift attention to the 0.618 support at $4,376.
On the 4-hour chart, economist and analyst Kamile Uray flagged weakening buying pressure around the $4,586 Fibonacci area, where demand failed to hold and price closed below the level before a small recovery. Uray identified the next meaningful test near the 0.618 4-hour support around $4,399 and cited the $4,700-$4,800 area as a recurring supply zone.
The 1-hour chart shows a descending parallel channel that has framed price since April 26. Gold rebounded from the channel’s lower bound near $4,520 and was testing the upper band near $4,614. A confirmed breakout that holds above that band measures to $4,786. A failed breakout projects a bearish target near $4,326, which overlaps the daily 0.618 Fibonacci support.
Momentum indicators are mixed. Daily MACD and RSI sit in neutral territory, with the MACD curling and approaching a potential bullish cross and the RSI beginning to turn up after weeks of correction. On the 1-hour chart, RSI and MACD leaned bullish during the recent push but have drifted back to neutral.
Uray wrote, ‘gold is moving inside a resting zone after a long advance, with bulls retaining the right to attempt another push higher.’ April ends with a binary technical setup: a sustained breakout would put price back above the 50-day MA and into prior highs; a rejection would return price to the lower half of the daily range.
