Gartner: AI-related layoffs fail to deliver ROI
Gartner: 80% of 350 firms using autonomous tools reduced staff, but cuts are not yielding expected ROI as companies plan to boost AI agent spending.
Gartner surveyed 350 companies with at least $1 billion in annual revenue that had deployed or were piloting autonomous business capabilities and found 80% had reduced headcount. The tools covered in the poll included AI agents, intelligent automation and robotic process automation. The firm reported that workforce cuts are not producing the expected returns for autonomous systems.
As Helen Poitevin put it, “Workforce reductions may create budget room, but they do not create return.” Poitevin is Gartner’s Distinguished VP Analyst and led the research.
Gartner’s analysis found companies that improve return on investment tend to increase investment in people rather than eliminate them. Those organizations expanded skills, created new roles and revised operating models so employees could guide and scale autonomous tools.
The consultancy also forecast rapid growth in AI agent spending, estimating investment will rise from $86.4 billion in 2025 to about $206.6 billion in 2026 and reach $376.3 billion in 2027.
On jobs, Gartner predicts autonomous business tools will be a net-positive job creator by 2028, generating new types of work that the firm says AI cannot absorb. Poitevin noted structural trends such as demographic decline and high-stakes, trust-dependent consumer interactions will keep human talent central to running, governing and scaling autonomous systems.
Other research cited by Gartner and industry figures shows mixed results from quick cuts tied to automation. A survey of technology leaders found roughly one-third of respondents who reduced staff in favor of AI later regretted those cuts. Analysts at Forrester warned that initial layoffs could prompt companies to try to recover capabilities through offshoring or other hiring strategies.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman described some corporate behavior as “AI washing,” criticizing firms that attribute layoffs to the technology when other factors are at play. An Oxford Economics analysis described the evidence that AI is driving widespread job displacement as uneven and noted that more traditional reasons for redundancies are often cited.
A prior Gartner estimate said 32 million jobs a year will need to be reconfigured, redesigned or fused in response to automation and AI, creating a need for updated job descriptions, training and governance.
Gartner recommends companies prioritize reskilling, define new human-plus-AI roles and adapt operating models so human oversight and governance scale with automation to capture value from autonomous systems.
