Five crypto surprises Cowen and Coin Bureau didn’t expect

Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into the Cryptoverse, and Guy Turner of Coin Bureau outlined five unexpected market developments in 2026 during a recent interview. Their observations covered Bitcoin dominance, ETF activity, equity performance, sector moves and security risks.

Cowen reported that Bitcoin dominance, measured including stablecoins, has traded flat since August 2025, a result that diverged from his preseason forecast for a midterm year. He also highlighted a rapid rally in semiconductors that lifted the sector by roughly 40% within a few weeks.

Cowen observed that social media discussion around spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds has been limited compared with prior cycles. He said ETF interest did not generate the same retail-driven momentum seen during the 2021 NFT and DeFi episodes.

Turner pointed to the S&P 500, which kept reaching new highs even as oil markets showed supply pressure and tensions between Israel and Iran persisted. He attributed part of the index’s resilience to large technology flows tied to artificial intelligence.

Both analysts linked spot Bitcoin ETF inflows to a change in crypto market rotation. Turner described many crypto-native investors as treating the ETFs as adjacent to traditional finance and said the funds likely drew capital that otherwise might have moved into smaller tokens, reducing the scale of a typical altcoin rally.

Turner expected more thefts routing funds to North Korea-linked groups such as Lazarus, and Cowen noted that counter-trend rallies are common in U.S. midterm years. Cowen also identified seasonal patterns, saying February and April have often marked lows in years like 2014, 2018 and 2022, with renewed weakness sometimes arriving later in the summer around policy shifts such as a Bank of Japan rate change.

Turner said the Clarity Act is not currently on Congress’s immediate calendar but warned that passage would alter market sentiment. Both analysts described the current crypto advance as a counter-trend move inside a broader bear market and cited the 21-week exponential moving average as a key resistance level for prices.

The five items the analysts singled out for 2026 were flat Bitcoin dominance, muted social media chatter about spot Bitcoin ETFs, unexpected strength in equities amid energy and Middle East stresses, a sharp semiconductor rally, and ongoing security and legislative risks that could change market dynamics.