Fed Minutes Show Hawkish Split, Pressure Bitcoin

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s April 28-29 meeting show a deep policy split and a hawkish tilt. The Fed left its target range at 3.50%–3.75% and recorded four dissents, the most since 1992.

Stephen Miran argued for a 25-basis-point rate cut, citing growing labor-market risks. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan opposed retaining language that suggested future easing.

Several officials sought to remove the Fed’s easing bias, and a majority indicated additional rate increases could become necessary if inflation proves persistent.

Fed staff estimated headline personal consumption expenditures inflation rose to 3.5% in March from 2.8% in February. Officials attributed the rise mainly to higher oil prices and supply disruptions related to tensions in the Middle East, and they also cited tariffs, higher shipping and fertilizer costs, and rising prices in the technology sector.

Officials warned that persistent price pressures could un-anchor inflation expectations and complicate the monetary outlook. Daniela Hathorn, a senior market analyst, observed markets were looking for confirmation that the Fed had grown more concerned about inflation persistence than growth.

Hathorn noted a hawkish reading of the minutes could lift Treasury yields and the dollar while weighing on equities and cryptocurrencies, and described crypto as behaving more like a high-beta macro asset.

Market participants flagged consolidation risk for Bitcoin after its recent rally. Analysts identified a support band around $76,000 to $74,800 and resistance near $82,000, and noted the coin’s near-term path may depend on liquidity and bond-market reactions to the minutes.

Investors are watching upcoming inflation reports and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in June for further evidence on policy direction. Traders are also assessing the leadership transition from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh and whether the new chair will maintain restrictive policy deeper into 2026.