Ethereum eyes midweek bounce as exchange inflows drop 85%
Ethereum trades near $2,330 after exchange inflows fell 85%. An inverse head-and-shoulders on the 8-hour chart requires a close above $2,309 to keep a roughly 9% upside target active.
Ethereum is trading around $2,330 after exchange net inflows dropped from 78,930 ETH on May 3 to 11,504 ETH on May 6, an 85% decline. The change in exchange flows was recorded over the first week of May and reflects fewer coins moving onto exchanges during that period.
On the 8-hour chart, Ethereum has formed an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern since mid‑April. The structure shows a left shoulder, a deeper head and a higher right shoulder. The right-shoulder floor sits at $2,309; a close above that level on an 8-hour candle is required to preserve the pattern.
Momentum indicators show a hidden bullish divergence: price made a higher low between mid‑April and early May while the Relative Strength Index printed a lower low in the same window. The pattern and the divergence are conditional on the next 8-hour candle holding above $2,309.
Glassnode on-chain data show the share of supply held by the six- to 12-month cohort rose from 18.12% on April 22 to 21.49% on May 6. The exchange net position change and the HODL Waves data were recorded through May 6.
Price levels on the 8-hour chart define upside and downside scenarios. Immediate resistance is near $2,358. Further resistance levels to reclaim are $2,388 (0.382 Fibonacci) and $2,412 (0.5 Fibonacci). The pattern’s neckline runs between $2,423 and $2,436. A clean break above the neckline points to a measured target near $2,642, roughly 9% above the neckline and aligned with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
On the downside, a failure to hold $2,309 would invalidate the right shoulder. The head’s low is at $2,218; a break below that level would represent a full unwind of the inverse head-and-shoulders structure.
Market participants monitoring Ethereum in the coming sessions will focus on whether the next 8-hour candle secures the $2,309 floor and whether exchange flows continue to decline. Price action around those levels will determine whether the chart pattern and the on-chain signals remain intact or become invalidated.
