Cowen: Bitcoin Rally Could Peak in Weeks, October Low Possible

Benjamin Cowen, founder of the Into the Cryptoverse channel, warned in a recent video that Bitcoin’s rally will likely top within weeks and could retrace to a low in October.

Cowen pointed to a repeated pattern in 2014, 2018 and 2019, when Bitcoin climbed above key moving averages during a bear phase and then resumed its downtrend. In those episodes the 200-day moving average acted as resistance.

He tracks the time between cycle lows. Recent cycles produced new lows roughly 140 to 174 days after earlier troughs; Bitcoin is currently about 88 days into its current cycle, which Cowen cited as support for the possibility of a near-term peak followed by a pullback.

Cowen also outlined factors that could argue against a decline. Year-to-date returns are well above the average for midterm years. Bitcoin sits about 10% below its yearly open, compared with a typical decline of 30% to 35% at the same stage in past cycles. The coin has reclaimed the bull market support band, retail interest remains muted, and altcoins continued to lose value against Bitcoin during the rally. Cowen described the last top as occurring from “apathy rather than euphoria.”

He forecasted that the rally will “find a top within the next few weeks and then we come back down to those levels.” Cowen added, “If I’m right, it will seem so obvious… If I’m wrong, then by the time you do something that’s different enough, you’re already well off the lows.”

Cowen noted that traders who took profits in the fourth quarter may still be in a reasonable position, saying, “Anyone who took profits on Bitcoin in Q4 when everyone else was screaming 300K is still doing fine.”

The 200-day moving average is a long-term trend line traders use to identify structural support and resistance. Cowen framed his outlook around the historical pattern and the timing between cycle lows, presenting a cautious near-term scenario for market participants.