Brent Nears $115 After Trump Warns Iran, Inventories Fall

Brent crude rose toward $115 on Monday after President Donald Trump posted that Iran’s “clock is ticking.” Prices traded near $111 as markets reacted to the post and fresh supply data.

The International Energy Agency flagged record inventory depletion in its monthly update. Swiss bank UBS projected global crude stockpiles could fall to about 7.6 billion barrels by the end of May, narrowing the buffer available to absorb supply disruptions.

On technical charts, Brent has been trading inside a symmetrical triangle since March 19, forming a pattern of lower highs and higher lows. On the daily chart the Relative Strength Index sits near 58; a move above 60 would add momentum to an upside break. On the four-hour chart Brent is trading inside a horizontal channel with support around $94 and resistance near $115.

After a breakout in late February that pushed prices toward $120, the market retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci level near $88 and has been oscillating in the channel. The market recently cleared the 0.236 retracement at $107.68 and is testing the $115 ceiling. A confirmed close above $115 would open a path toward the prior high near $119.6. Failure at $115 could push prices back toward the 0.382 retracement at $100.32 or the $94 channel floor.

Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S. measures have kept some Iranian ports under blockade, limiting a major oil transit route. A fragile ceasefire reached in April has not reduced regional tensions.

On Truth Social, Trump posted “Clock is ticking,” a message traders cited as increasing concerns about renewed conflict and potential further supply restrictions.

With inventories low and geopolitical tensions elevated, traders flagged the potential for greater volatility in futures and spot markets. Tight supplies would raise spot prices and make it harder for buyers to secure cargoes; renewed flows or additional supply could relieve pressure.

Market participants will be watching weekend and intraday closes around $115, upcoming inventory releases and any developments in U.S.-Iran diplomatic exchanges for signals on whether Brent will break higher toward prior highs or reverse toward lower retracement levels.