Brent could climb 32% if neckline break confirms
Brent crude could rise about 32% to roughly $154 if a daily close above the $113.95 neckline confirms an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, while backwardation and Chinese buying tighten prompt supply.
An inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that began in late March 2026 projects a roughly 32% gain for Brent crude if a daily close above the neckline near $113.95 is confirmed. That measured target maps to about $154.26 per barrel.
The inverse head-and-shoulders is a three-low reversal pattern with the middle low lower than the two outer lows. For Brent, a confirmed close above $113.95 would set a measured move equal to the height of the pattern and produce the 32% projection from the breakout point.
The front-month/second-month Brent spread (BRN1 minus BRN2) shows persistent calendar backwardation. The spread averaged about $0.24 in early 2026 before tensions rose, spiked above $10 after Strait of Hormuz disruptions in April and currently sits at $3.85, roughly eight times the pre-conflict baseline. That level reflects a premium for prompt barrels. Market participants note that if the BRN1-BRN2 spread falls below $2.66, the fundamental support for the technical setup would weaken.
Options activity in the United States Brent Oil Fund ETF (BNO) indicates bullish positioning. BNO’s open-interest put-call ratio is about 0.16 and its volume ratio about 0.30, both tilted toward calls. Implied volatility for BNO is in the 90th percentile of the past year.
China has increased imports and storage builds. Seaborne imports averaged a record 11.99 million barrels per day in early 2026, about 16% higher than a year earlier. Since March 2025 China has been adding roughly 1 million barrels per day into strategic and commercial storage and is building roughly 169 million barrels of additional storage capacity through 2026. Those purchases remove crude from the global market.
On the technical chart, Brent trades above key daily exponential moving averages: the 20-day at $103.46, the 50-day at $97.65, the 100-day at $88.63 and the 200-day at $80.36. Immediate support aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $102.72 and the 20-day EMA. A daily close below $95.78, the right-shoulder low, would weaken the head-and-shoulders pattern; a break under $86.02, the head low, would negate the broader bullish structure. On the upside, reclaiming $113.95 would open $118.90 and, if sustained, point toward the $154.26 measured target.
Regional tensions eased after an April 8 ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz traffic is partially resuming. Market participants are watching the daily close at the neckline and the front-month spread to assess whether technical and physical conditions align for further price moves.
