Bitcoin Reclaims $80,000, Analysts Split on Outlook

Bitcoin climbed above $80,000 on Sunday for the first time in three months, rising about 22% over the past five weeks. Traders and analysts offered competing readings of the rally, citing on-chain metrics, profit flows and spot-market dynamics.

Data from on-chain analytics firm Santiment showed daily active Bitcoin wallets near 531,000 and new wallet creation around 203,000, both at two-year lows even as price advanced. Santiment wrote that price gains without rising on-chain participation have often been fragile, but added that activity bottoms have in some cases preceded larger upward moves.

Michael Nadeau, founder of The DeFi Report, pointed to spot-market measures. He noted that the Bitcoin Spot Volume Delta flipped positive for only the second time in the current bear market, indicating buyers were more aggressive than sellers in recent spot trades. Nadeau also referenced earlier bear-market patterns in which similar signals were followed by price corrections and said recent short liquidations pushed the price into key resistance while funding rates turned positive.

Santiment recorded net realized profits of $207.56 million on Sunday, the largest monthly spike in its dataset. The firm reported that heavy profit-taking occurred while markets were rising and commented that such profit realization has, at times, coincided with continued uptrends.

An analyst using the name Darkfost reported that short-term holder inflows in profit totaled about 13,000 BTC and weekly short-term holder inflows on Binance reached roughly 36,500 BTC. He wrote that those inflow figures rank among the lowest of the cycle and added that lower sell-side pressure from short-term holders can support price consolidation around the $80,000 level.

Analyst Plan C presented a longer-term projection, characterizing the recent price moves as part of a multi-year trend that began after Bitcoin’s November 2022 low near $16,000. Plan C projected a potential peak above $250,000 in late 2027 to early 2028.

The market reaction has left analysts divided. Some highlight the weak on-chain participation and past patterns tied to positive Spot Volume Delta flips as reasons for caution. Others point to the ability of price to clear $80,000 despite substantial realized profits and lower short-term sell-side pressure as evidence that buying demand remains present.

Price action in the coming days and weeks will provide more data for these views. Traders are watching on-chain metrics, realized profit figures and spot market flows for signs of continued buying or a renewed correction.