Bitcoin nears $76,875 as sell pressure eases, whales trim

Bitcoin traded near $76,875 as sell volume eased and price held inside a downward-sloping channel after a 27% rally from March 29 to May 6. The pattern qualifies as a bull flag, a short consolidation that follows a sharp advance.

On-chain measures show tighter available supply. Nearly 60% of Bitcoin has not moved in over a year. Exchange balances have fallen to about 15.0% from a prior peak of 17.6%. The short-term holder MVRV rose above 1.0, indicating recent buyers are, on average, holding small unrealized gains.

Large-holder data moved in the opposite direction. Wallets holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 BTC reduced their share of total supply from 3.46% on February 20 to 3.31% on May 18. The reduction continued through the price rise into early May without a meaningful rebuild.

A trading gauge that compares activity near market opens and closes broke below its signal line on May 15. That was the first decisive breach since March 26; Bitcoin has fallen about 5% since that breakdown began.

Technically, price sits between a swing low at $64,884 and a swing high at $82,830. The 0.236 retracement at $78,595 caps immediate upside, while the 0.382 retracement at $75,975 is the first line of support. A daily close below $75,975 would put the 0.5 zone at $73,857 into view; a drop beneath the 0.618 level at $71,739 would invalidate the flag pattern by standard technical rules.

The flag’s upper trendline is near $81,665. A sustained move above that trendline followed by a clear break above $82,830 would complete a break above the prior swing high and extend the March–May advance.

The flag pattern and the on-chain metrics present a mixed picture: retail-related measures show reduced available supply while the largest holder cohort reduced its share of supply and the open-versus-close trading gauge signaled caution. Continued low selling volume or renewed buying interest would affect where price moves next.