Bitcoin cycle indicator turns green for first time since 2023
CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator turned green for the first time since March 2023 as Bitcoin traded near $80,655 ahead of the April 2026 CPI release.
CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator moved out of bear territory this week for the first time since March 2023, while Bitcoin traded near $80,655 on price feeds ahead of Tuesday’s April 2026 Consumer Price Index release.
The indicator had been negative for about 26 months. Comparable early-bull readings in 2019 and early 2023 were followed by extended recoveries after deep drawdowns. The indicator’s 30-day moving average shows improving momentum beneath the surface.
Bitcoin was near $80,655, down about 0.6% on the day and up roughly 13% over the past 30 days, based on exchange price data. On-chain measures show the token has reclaimed the $78,000 area, a level aligned with the True Market Mean and the short-term holder cost basis.
On-chain analysis frames the $78,000 area as a dividing line between bear and bull phases. Sustained trading above that zone has historically coincided with tighter market structure and stronger investor sentiment.
CryptoQuant analyst Moreno cautioned that the current reading has a historical exception, pointing to a brief green reading in March 2022 that was followed by a price rejection and an extended downtrend. He said the probabilities lean toward a potential local top unless price follows through strongly and confirms the shift.
Joao Wedson of Alphractal highlighted a recent flip in the 30-day change in exchange reserves from negative to positive, indicating more Bitcoin moving onto exchanges than off them. Wedson warned that past episodes where this variation turned positive did not support price gains.
The April CPI report is scheduled for release Tuesday before U.S. markets open. Economists surveyed expect headline CPI to rise about 0.7% month over month and 3.7% year over year, an acceleration from March’s 3.3% annual pace. Market participants are watching whether the inflation reading alters expectations for the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Market participants expect clearer confirmation from follow-through price action, particularly a sustained move above roughly $82,000 and the True Market Mean. The indicator’s green reading and the CPI print will be monitored for their combined impact on spot market supply and demand.
