Bitcoin 20% Rally Hides Bearish Signals as Whales Sell
Bitcoin rose more than 20% over the past month through May 6, yet funding rates stayed negative, open interest rose with net shorts, and 1,000–10,000 BTC wallets sold about 80,000 coins.
Bitcoin climbed more than 20% over roughly the past month through May 6, but derivatives and on‑chain metrics show mixed positioning beneath the price advance. Total open interest and short-term price action point to persistent short exposure, while mid-size whale wallets reduced holdings.
Total Bitcoin open interest rose from $30.88 billion on April 30 to $34.26 billion by May 6, an increase of about 11% across six trading sessions. Funding rates remained negative over that period, moving from -0.011% to -0.006%, indicating that perpetual futures traders were paying to hold short exposure rather than long exposure.
On the spot market, traded volume thinned as price climbed on the eight-hour chart. Between April 14 and May 6, Bitcoin’s price trended higher while traded volume declined, a pattern in which the rally occurred with falling spot volume.
Addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC reduced their combined balance from about 4.27 million BTC on April 18 to about 4.19 million BTC on May 6, a drop of roughly 80,000 BTC over 18 days that coincided with the price advance.
Momentum on the daily chart showed a divergence between price and the Relative Strength Index. Between January 5 and May 5, Bitcoin’s price made a lower high while the RSI made a higher high, a pattern described as hidden bearish divergence. That divergence would be invalidated by a daily close above $81,854.
Bitcoin traded near $81,326 with immediate resistance between $81,810 and $81,854. A daily close above $81,854 would open a technical path toward $90,460, a level aligned with a descending trendline that has capped gains since January. If the price is rejected at the resistance band, the next technical support sits at $76,656 (the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement), followed by $73,467 (0.382), $70,891 (0.5) and $68,314 (0.618). A move below $64,645 would expose a longer-term floor near $59,972.
The derivatives structure reflects short interest in the perpetual futures market. With funding rates negative and new open interest weighted toward shorts, a failed breakout would not trigger large long-liquidation cascades that sometimes slow or reverse declines, because there are fewer leveraged long positions to be liquidated.
