Artemis model sees Coinbase at $300B by 2031
Artemis CEO Jon Ma published an open-source model projecting Coinbase could reach about $300 billion by 2031 if USDC captures 30% of stablecoins and AI agents drive agentic commerce.
Artemis CEO Jon Ma released an open-source financial model on Thursday projecting that Coinbase could reach roughly a $300 billion market capitalization by 2031. The model links the exchange’s valuation to stablecoin scale, machine-to-machine spending and a shift toward subscription-style revenue.
Ma’s spreadsheet assumes total stablecoin supply will reach $3 trillion by 2031 and that USD Coin (USDC) will capture 30% of that supply. The model notes USDC is distributed heavily through Coinbase’s partnership with Circle.
The model projects AI-driven agents will enable about $7.5 trillion in annual agentic commerce by 2031 and estimates Coinbase would capture one basis point (0.01%) of those flows.
Under those assumptions the spreadsheet forecasts roughly $23 billion in revenue and about $10 billion in net income in 2031. Using a 30-times price-to-earnings multiple, Ma calculates a market capitalization near $300 billion. Ma wrote on X: “In our bull case, Coinbase does ~$23B revenue in 2031 with ~$10B of net income. At 30x PE that assumes ~$300B of marketcap (6x+ from today).”
The model projects subscription and services revenue rising from about 40% of total revenue today to roughly 65% by 2031, reducing the company’s reliance on volatile trading volumes and widening its base of predictable revenue.
The model was published the same week Coinbase announced a companywide staff reduction of about 14%. CEO Brian Armstrong described a reorganization that flattens hierarchy and creates AI-native pods to manage fleets of software agents. Coinbase has pushed engineers to increase AI-generated code to more than half of daily output, launched Agentic Wallets to settle machine-to-machine payments, and co-manages the x402 protocol with Cloudflare under the Linux Foundation.
Ma’s spreadsheet also includes a bear case that values Coinbase near $70 billion. The model identifies three main dependencies for the bullish scenario: stablecoin regulatory policy and overall stablecoin growth, USDC’s ability to hold or grow market share versus competing tokens, and widespread adoption of agentic commerce and related infrastructure.
The open-source model provides detailed assumptions and calculations outlining how stablecoins and AI-driven transactions could change Coinbase’s revenue mix and valuation.
